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In a last-ditch effort to save the Sixers' floundering season, head coach Eddie Jordan benched two of his every-game starters last week, declaring a "mini-playoff" of sorts for his struggling team in the weeks leading up to the All-Star game.
For the first two games, the newly-benched Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams answered their coach's challenge by scoring 33 and 36 points against Dallas and Indiana in back-to-back wins for the Sixers. The Sixers moved to 15-28 by virtue of their fourth two-game winning streak of the season, and suddenly looked alive on the court and in the ever-pathetic race for the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
The Sixers headed home this past Monday night for the return game of their home-and-home with Indiana, the same Pacers team they beat by double digits on Saturday night. They had their chance to start their first three-game winning streak of the season (unbelievable, but true), and to generate some legitimate momentum towards their annual second-half playoff charge.
Instead, the Sixers blew their NBA-leading 10th double-digit lead of the season, and the Pacers killed all Sixer momentum with a 109-98 victory.
The Sixers' woes didn't end there. They headed to 19-25 Milwaukee on Wednesday, where they nearly made a 10-point deficit vanish before losing in excruciating fashion. Lou Williams fed Elton Brand for a game-tying lay-up with seconds left; not only did Brand miss the layup, but he grabbed the rebound of his own miss, stepped back and bricked a fadeaway 17-footer.
But yea, the basketball gods kept the Sixers' hopes dangling on a string. Milwaukee only knocked down one of two from the free throw line, leaving the Sixers down three with the ball with 2.2 seconds left. Naturally, Andre Iguodala, a career 32.4 percent shooter from downtown, jacked up a 27-footer. Guess how that ended.
Add in a virtually pre-determined loss to the Lakers on Friday night and the Sixers' mini-playoffs have already ground to a halt with an 0-3 week. Based on "talent" alone, the Sixers should have beaten both Indiana and Milwaukee; their losses may only make management more inclined to blow the team up before the Feb. 18 trade deadline.
With that said, here are some of the biggest story lines to keep an eye on for the Sixers' second half:
Who will be a Sixer past Feb. 18?
This Jan. 29 tweet from ESPN's Ric Bucher says it all about the Sixers and the trade deadline:
"Epicenter" of trade talk, 1 GM says, has shifted from Wizards to Suns, courtesy of Amare's availability. Sixers also unlikely to stand pat.
Ruh roh. Nice to know you, Andre Iguodala?
The Philadelphia Inquirer only seemed to confirm those sentiments on Friday, getting these comments from Sixers' GM Ed Stefanski:
"I will say that we're very active in talking to teams throughout the league, and we're listening to any option to improve the basketball team. When I was in Jersey, and here, I don't think there are untouchables.
"Anyone can get traded in this league, and we've seen it over and over. But we don't trade a player unless we get value back, basketball-wise."
Well, dear God, I hope that "basketball value" requirement rules out the rumored Iguodala-for-Tracy McGrady swap.
The Sixers would love to unload (at least) one of their three major contracts: Iguodala, Brand, and Samuel Dalembert. Problem is...no one in the league will bite on Brand, Dalembert hasn't drawn interest for the past 18 months, and the offers for Iguodala have been underwhelming at best.
This will be the biggest issue going forward for this team for the next three weeks, much more so than Jordan's "mini-playoff" motivational tactic. Bucher's tweet gives every indication that the Sixers will be making moves within the coming weeks, making a second-half prediction that much more difficult.
Regardless of what roster changes happen over the next three weeks, there are a few other issues worth keeping an eye on...
(Read about five of the Sixers' biggest issues going forward after the jump.)
Defending a lead. Seriously.
In his most recent NBA Power Rankings, ESPN's Marc Stein revealed the following painfully relevant statistic, which sums up the Sixers' first half of the season pretty well:
There are four teams in the league that have blown nine double-digit leads this season: Philly, Houston, Memphis and Golden State. But Indy isn't far off the pace with seven.
Naturally, on the same day Stein's rankings went online, the Sixers went and blew their NBA-leading 10th double-digit lead to those very same listless "not far off the pace" Pacers.
That says it all. Imagine what 10 wins would have done for this 15-31 team. Keep in mind, in the Eastern Conference, a 25-21 would currently put the Sixers as the five seed in the playoffs, a half-game ahead of division rival Toronto.
Hell, had they even defended half of those double-digit leads, they'd be sitting at a much more swallowable 20-26, hanging around with New York and Milwaukee as playoff lurkers waiting to make a surge in the second half of the season.
Part of these blown leads can be attributed to coach Jordan's seeming lack of a final shot strategy whatsoever, as it's a crapshoot each night as to who will jack up the off-balance, fade-away game-winning 27-foot three-pointer that inevitably misses.
But as evidenced on Wednesday in Milwaukee, with Brand's missed bunny lay-up, some of the blame must fall on the shoulders of the players. And if the Sixers fail to execute in the game's waning seconds, start the NBA Draft lottery countdown now.
Jordan's rotation circus brings roster discord?
For anyone following the Sixers this season, coach Jordan's rotations have been a sicker joke than The Aristocrats.
Unfortunately, the coach's unpredictability regarding lineups has been a problem for most of the season. (I wrote this article a month ago, and it still applies.)
Last week, he tries this "mini-playoff" gimmick and benches Thad and Sweet Lou for Jrue Holiday and Brand. Thad and Sweet Lou are pissed, but say "as long as we keep winning, it's okay."
What happens when the Sixers stop winning, like they did last week?
I'm not going to kill Jordan for having the fortitude to bench two of his starters; in fact, I suggested three weeks ago that Thad's production had been down as a power forward and that it might be time to move him to the bench.
But he did run the risk of losing his already young and volatile locker room by making such a controversial move. And as the Inquirer's Kate Fagan noted on Thursday, the team seemed "checked out" against the Bucks on Wednesday night.
Fagan also wrote, "After the game, Williams said it was frustration borne of a desire to play - that's it, just to play."
In the NBA, players establish rhythms within a season by reasonably expecting a certain amount of minutes each game. With Jordan juggling minutes better than a Cirque de Soliel show, a guy like Thad Young will play 42 minutes one night and 19 minutes the next.
When guys like Young and Williams, who had started every game this season, get benched, they start forcing shots to try and prove they belong back in the starting lineup. They know they have less time each game to make an impact, so they begin rushing their normal motions.
Teams like the Cavaliers and the Lakers are shortening their bench at this part of the season, starting to figure out which seven or eight guys will make the biggest impact (or who will be the smallest liability) in their playoff runs. Coach Jordan went 10 deep against Indiana on Monday, and played 11 (!!!) different players on Wednesday.
Basketball is a game of rhythm. Look back to coach Jordan when you wonder why this year's Sixers lack any sort of cohesive rhythm this far into the season.
Battle for the eighth seed?
It's hard to believe, but this 15-31 Sixers team, situated 16 games below .500, still has an outside shot to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this season. Currently, the Chicago Bulls hold the 8th spot with a 23-22 record.
(Whether or not it's best for this team to make another second-half surge, clinch a low playoff seed and get swept out in the first round by Cleveland, Boston, or Orlando again is up for debate, as we'll get to in the next slide.)
If the Sixers manage to stop blowing double-digit leads, find some cohesion in their rotations, and develop legitimate chemistry on the court, they do have the talent on their roster to go on a second-half tear.
They've got two former No.1 overall picks, the league's 2001 MVP, and a slew of young, talented players on the roster.
As of today (Sunday, Jan. 31), the Sixers are only three games behind the New York Knicks, a team that could easily make a charge for the East's 8th seed.
If the team does trade away a major piece (like Andre Iguodala) for cap relief (like Tracy McGrady), then the Sixers are clearly kissing the playoffs goodbye, and starting the aforementioned NBA Draft countdown.
But if the Sixers can't find any acceptable deals for a guy like Iguodala and decide to give this year's team one more year before blowing it up (you know, like next year, when they have $20 million of expiring contracts on their roster)...don't be entirely surprised to see them make their annual second-half surge towards the playoffs.
They may have dug themselves too deeply into a hole this year to make the playoffs, being 16 games under .500 and all. But thankfully, they're in the (L)Eastern Conference...where anything happens, and any team even close to .500 could end up making the playoffs.
Time to tank?
Bleacher Report writer Eric DeBer covered this sentiment perfectly in his recent article: "76ers: An Internal Debate—Should I Root for My Team To Lose?"
It's a question worth asking, especially with GM Ed Stefanski recently declaring that there were no "untouchables" on the roster regarding trades.
If the Sixers slash-and-burn their roster by trading Iguodala or another piece for cap relief, they'll have answered the "tanking" question themselves, defending it as "a necessary rebuilding piece" or something along those lines.
But even if these Sixers stay together past Feb. 18...with freshman phenom point guard John Wall dangling as the No.1 overall prize in the NBA Draft this summer, some fans will be clamoring for this team to start intentionally losing games.
Now granted, the fans won't package their proposal in such a bold way. They'll suggest "giving younger players minutes" once this season becomes lost (if it hasn't already), justifying it as a developmental move for the long-term future of the franchise.
No team is going to willingly acknowledging giving up on games down the stretch either. But when the players are giving up on the coach, like the Inquirer's Fagan hinted at earlier this week...is there a rule against that?
It's going to be virtually impossible to catch the 4-40 New Jersey Nets...but with that said, the Sixers currently have the fourth worst record in the NBA (trailing only New Jersey, Minnesota, and Golden State).
For those clamoring for the team to blow up the roster and get a high lottery pick...there's no need! The Sixers are in line for a top-grade lottery pick as is!
Depending on what the Sixers do at the trade deadline, this will undoubtedly be a storyline worth following, especially if Fagan's words from earlier this week continue to hold true.
Until then... keep playing ESPN's Draft Lottery until you see Sixers: John Wall. (OSU's Evan Turner wouldn't be such a bad consolation prize, either. He'd be aperfect replacement for Iguodala.)
Looking down the road...
What I am about to do is in no way scientific, or based on any huge computer's database of statistics. But, I will give a shot at guessing the Sixers' record the rest of the way, given their upcoming schedule and how their first half went.
Unfortunately, it looks like the easy part of the schedule has passed for this year's team, as only 10 of their final 36 opponents have records .500 or below. That's not good for a 15-31 team.
Fortunately, they're in the East. (How many times have I ripped the East in this slideshow?) They can make the playoffs with a .500 or possibly sub-.500 record.
Going through their schedule the rest of the year, I broke the games down into three categories: "Must/Should Win," "Could Win," and my personal favorite, "Pretty Much No Chance." On rough approximation, the Sixers had 10 "Must/Should Win" games (not coincidentally, all 10 of their sub-.500 opponents the rest of the way), 13 "Could Wins" and 13 "Pretty Much No Chances."
(For those curious, the 13 "Pretty Much No Chances", by month: Feb (4): @L.A., @PHX, S.A., either @HOU/@N.O; Mar (7): ORL, @ATL, BOS, CLE, ORL, ATL, either @TOR/MIA/CHA; Apr (2): @MEM/MIA, @ORL)
Given that, if the Sixers manage to win every single "Must Win" and "Could Win" and lose every "Pretty Much No Chance," they finish with a 38-44 record. That means they go 23-13 the rest of the way.
That's likely an absurdly optimistic prediction, given the way the season has gone thus far. Seeing as they can't close out the likes of Indiana and Milwaukee in the past week, there's no way they're sweeping 10 of the NBA's other bottom feeders. And they're also not stealing a bunch of road games from division and conference foes, like the "Could Wins" would suggest.
If the Sixers start humming, there's still life.
But if the Sixers slash-and-burn, or the team continues to blow easy games...feel free to start dreaming of John Wall and Allen Iverson next season.
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